The
Power of Denotation |
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The
Power of Denotation |
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by Dr.
Peter Meier, MeaningGiving
Informatics (BGI AG), CH-8048 Zürich |
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S-Survival by arousing fairly necessary feelings: It is an honor to be among you though I ought to clarify that I speak here not as a representative, nor indeed in any other official capacity but in a purely and wholly personal capacity. *A typical introduction seeking denotational power, that puts individual life-fulfillment into the perspective of what intellectual scribes have established, generally applicable, denotational norms... | Timely: My talk is
titled "Scenarios for the Future". and I perhaps need to
explain the word "scenario" or at least to explain the sense in which I am using
the word so I can, with an open heart, control the new process with my
projections. This exercise is done in order to get executives
to discuss their reactions, approaches, feelings and indeed values so that the executives
can develop an in-depth understanding of each other as well as of the differential
impact of possible situations and actions on the various aspects of a company's operation,
survivability and profitability. |
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e-Experience in preventive innovative thinking: In big commercial companies, the word "scenario"comes from a particular approach which is called "Scenario Planning". In contrast to detailed Business Planning which focuses on actions and results in view of the most likely future, Scenario Planning consists in trying to get senior executives in a company to consider all possible future situations, no matter how unlikely. | |
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M-Pleasure
in confronting the concept of control of satisfaction: Scenario Planning is
different too from Contingency Planning, in that Contingency Planning focuses on
possible foreseeable contingencies in order to put in place rather specific plans
for each such contingency. The focus, in Contingency Planning, is on the development of
specific and detailed actions. By contrast, the focus in Scenario Planning, is on developing a common mind so that any
UNFORESEEN and even UNFORESEEABLE emergency or event will trigger a common, recognizable and valid pattern of response right through a company.
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Exchange of: of: You could argue that, in contrast to normal Business Planning as well
as Contingency Planning, Scenario Planning is rather vague and "soft". This argument is to advice you to withstand
new trends and habits. Since Shell's success, Scenario
Planning has been used in an increasing number of companies, specially as it has become
increasingly clear that we live in times of rapid, complex and discontinuous change.
I do not have the figures, I believe they have never been researched, but I would be
surprised if the overwhelming majority of large companies today do not use some
form of Scenario Planning. |
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l-Sustainability by allowing to default to the proposed standard: Has it been of any use? Well, it is widely credited, both within and outside the company, for moving say Shell from the bottom to the top of the league of large oil companies, and making Shell one of the largest companies in the world, specifically by helping it to cope with the unforeseen oil shocks in 1973 and 1979, which none of the other oil companies were able to do, since they had not developed any technique such as Scenario Planning to help them cope with such unexpected developments. | |
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c-Attitude in inviting: Join me in an extremely brief scenario exercise, not to the extent of considering our responses to such scenarios, but with a view to considering at least what such scenarios might be. | Project-: -: But let us first clarify the question: What are the Scenarios for ....? I do not
want to discuss details such as ... will or will not become by a certain date. I do want
to consider the consequences of ....whatever its size. I say this to withstand the temptation to deregulate any
other opinion you might be tempted to have and just consider all the possible benefit of
going along with my open-hearted joy: It creates,
immediately, one of the largest market in the world - and, in the long run, as internal
inefficiencies are eliminated, I believe that it will make for THE largest ... in the
world, irrespective of whether any other countries join. Second, it provides transparency
of costs and prices, the ability to compare much more clearly the cost/benefit and the
price/earnings ratios across products, services, industries and countries. It is not only keener
competition and increased efficiency that should result, alongside the
elimination of currency-related costs. The key possibility is greater
industrial and commercial consolidation across Euroland. This is of course the culmination
of a 50-year history of integration across Euro which will lead to a genuinely single
market across these nations. |
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Ce-Position
in terms of casting an eye over the
timetable for and consequences of introducing overwhelming facts (introduction
of the Euro), so that we have a common mind and approach to the
subject and identify the "critical familiarization phase phase" so we can be clear about what the creation of the evolving
overwhelming consequences do! Let's face it, you do not really have a choice but to go along with my eminently superior approach in succumbing to the unavoidable trend and the overwhelming majority that has already tuned into it. You can actually be grateful that I support you with an open heart to go in that direction! |
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Cm-Subjectivity
in my lack of wisdom:
I have not had any success in foreseeing any other scenarios,
however unlikely. But perhaps these five give us something to discuss. Now, I am sure to be asked at least one question before our time together ends,
and I should like to take the opportunity to answer this question before it is asked. Let me conclude by attempting to answer the
difficult of questions as to the most likely scenario: In order to do so, let me refer you to the sort of categorization used by marketing experts when they launch a new product. Some consumers respond to a new product immediately, because these consumers are what is called "early adopters". But the bulk of consumers wait to see how the early adopters fare, and if these early adopters are happy with the product, then the bulk of consumers too jump on the bandwagon. There are of course a considerable number of people who don’t jump on the bandwagon with the majority and they are called "late adopters". The question, for the success of a product launch is neither the early nor the late adopters. It is the length of time before the bulk of people jump on the bandwagon. |
Orientated:
My hypothetical enquirer may address me in the following way:
"You have already said what you consider to be the least likely scenario, but
what do you see as the most likely scenario?". That is of course not a
valid question in a "normal" scenario planning exercise, since any
attempt to answer this question begins to take us in the direction of contingency
planning. Of course
I want to stay on the safe side of what is likely to happen...
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A-Guidance in what I believe: There will be some, at least a few, early shocks as at least a few leaders in commerce and industry make moves in Europe. Everyone will hold their breath to see what happens. Not much will happen in the marketplace, as the energy of these first movers will be wholly absorbed, for at least a year, probably two, in trying to make these acquisitions or mergers work. The people made redundant will somehow cope, and their pain will be absorbed by the politico-economic system in one way or another. Now comes the question to which there can be no answer in advance: how swiftly will the others, the bulk of industrial and commercial players, move? | |
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p-My potential guess is that it will be somewhere
between three and five years following the launch of the Euro. In short, in many ways, this is the worst possible time,
from a social and political point of view for the launch of the Euro. At the same time, it
is probably the best possible time for the launch of the Euro from an
economic point of view . is that it will be somewhere
between three and five years following the launch of the Euro. In short, in many ways, this is the worst possible time,
from a social and political point of view for the launch of the Euro. At the same time, it
is probably the best possible time for the launch of the Euro from an
economic point of view . I do
not underestimate the issues and dangers ahead,
especially from extreme right wing at present, though the extreme left
could easily revive too - and I realize that I am being unfashionable
when I say so. , especially from extreme right wing at present, though the extreme left could easily revive too - and I realize that I am being unfashionable when I say so. |
Competence: But I hope that I am not merely being unfashionable with my insights, when I say that I am hopeful that Europe with its tradition of caution, conservatism, consensus and reviving Christian values, faced as it is with all of these major issues and very real dangers, will nevertheless be able to work its way through them. |
*What then, are the possible scenarios regarding the future of the EU, following the launch of the Euro? Prof. Prabhu Gubtara said at the Churchill-Symposium 1998: EMU and beyond, I can see five scenarios : |
Scenario Planning - a politically correct substitution of TEPOC........ | |
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This scenario reflects the
present way things are done at the time these scenarios were outlined. As soon as
a trend is denotionalized by the intellect of the leading people, they use it to con-vince
others to implement it as Marx did with his theory. However, it highlights the what needs to be done, Timely, restructuring based on what emerges in the denotational Ce-evolution or from informal poll-policy otherwise lacking in orientation and basis. However believes in evolution promotes what serves it, death- and end-technology! In terms of Ce, this asks for better arguments to beat the opponents in terms of influence on Ce. |
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With such humanistic promises
intellectuals like to justify their denotational approach and cover up its obvious
short-cuts in order to be able to go on with their Exchange of politically correct arguments... |
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This scenario actually
reflects the fear of the intellectuals, not so much of the political but
of the personal failure of their approach and that it could reach political dimensions. It
thus highlights the Projects that might surface in order to prevent the otherwise likely failure... |
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Here care is take to point to
potential scapegoats if things go wrong politically, to captains and
their middle management. Being thus Orientated allows to change the bandwagon in time; its ok to be wrong as long as one is part of the majority and it is certainly better than to be right, yet alone... |
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This scenario is in fact the worst; it leaves everything to the evolving Ce with not room for creativity and for that matter God. It entails no personal Competence, no learning and allows the intellectuals to go on opinionating as ever without putting anything forth for which they could be made responsible for. It it designed to keep the existing position power! | |
A few days after writing the above, UBS had it crash with its long-term capital management. Obviously somebody left things to blind chance in scenario E and that somebody might have been coached by somebody else whose preference is the denotational power that goes along with scenario E using A-D to demean personal competence and a corresponding TEPOC-culture and/or by being hypnotized by the Ce-trend with all its consequences...
